Tag: Eoghan Deasy

  • Vaccine Passports “Inherently Illiberal”

    On October 5th of this year, Minister for Health Stephen Donnelly spoke before the Dáil during a debate to extend the legal framework for restrictions in the State – the sunset clause of the Health Amendments (Covid-19) Act 2021 – for three months. He stated that there was no intention to extend the restrictions beyond October 22nd, but that they wished to keep the legal framework in place in case of the need for further restrictions or lockdowns.

    This was clearly a lie, or ignorance on an unforgiveable scale. It cannot be both.

    In the interim, hospitalisations related to COVID-19 have steadily climbed, and the wheel of fear and dread has begun to turn again, quickly gathering pace.

    Thankfully, the government are attempting to turn the tide by extending the need for the Covid certification pass to theatre and cinemagoers, as well as banning nativity plays and playdates, thus surely halting the inevitable pressure that is being mounted on our health system.

    Inherently Illiberal

    I must state from the outset that I am vehemently against the concept of a vaccine passport or vaccine mandates. I believe them to be inherently illiberal and it pains me to see the willingness with which we have adopted them into our society.

    I acknowledge that when an issue produces such a visceral response, there is an increased likelihood that my reasoning may be faulty. Having read Daniel Kahnemann’s Thinking, Fast and Slow , I recognise that instinct and emotion can often cloud clear judgement. Hence, I have attempted to examine the principal arguments for and against vaccine passports in the context of the coronavirus pandemic to see if I can or will come to a different conclusion.

    I take COVID-19 extremely seriously and witness the impact of the pandemic on the patients that I meet every day. This relates not just to actual illness but to the myriad other issues, both medical and non-medical that the past twenty-two months have created for them.

    I support vaccination but not forced inoculation in the same way that I support appropriate medical treatment, not forced care. I worry that unnecessary interventions will create long-term sequalae that cannot be predicted, in the same way that inappropriate prescribing of medications does.

    Preventing the Spread?

    The most obvious argument in favour of vaccine certification is that it should prevent the spread of disease in an enclosed area. The certificate will work to protect both vaccinated and unvaccinated from contracting and spreading the disease and reducing the burden on the hospital system.

    Unfortunately, there is absolutely no evidence that this is the case. Vaccinated citizens have been readily demonstrated to be able to contract and transmit the virus in the exact same manner as an unvaccinated person.

    A recent Lancet study demonstrated that vaccination reduced the risk of Delta variant infection and accelerated viral clearance. This is great news, demonstrating that vaccines are effective. However, fully vaccinated individuals with breakthrough infections had peak viral load similar to unvaccinated cases, and could efficiently transmit infection in household settings, including to fully vaccinated contacts.[i]

    If vaccinated and unvaccinated persons are equally capable of transmitting a virus, why do we insist on segregation and marginalisation of a significant minority of our population?

    Pandemic of the Unvaccinated?

    The second argument commonly encountered is that it is the segment of the population who are unvaccinated by choice who are creating the ICU and hospital bed capacity issues.

    As of November 17th 52% of patients are unvaccinated, with a significant percentage of this population also immunocompromised. According to Minister Donnelly, 98% of the vaccinated ICU patients are immunocompromised. On this basis, there is a strong likelihood that a significant proportion of the unvaccinated cohort are not unvaccinated by choice but because they are too unwell to receive the vaccine.

    This is speculative on my part but is worth considering, and requires refutation.

    Another argument advanced is that full participation in society is not free and requires solidarity on the part of the individual citizen: Thus, “Play your part. Protect yourself. Protect others” is a common slogan.

    David Robert Grimes wrote an essay recently for The Guardian, comparing smallpox vaccine mandates in the early 1900’s to today’s issues. Of course, he neglected to mention that there was no vaccine passports in use at the time for participating in normal life, and provides no justification for them other than that they represent a mark of ‘solidarity.’

    He also states that participation in society is not free, and that freedom comes at a cost, which is somewhat paradoxical. There is an expectation of brotherhood in society. However, if brotherhood is coerced against someone’s will, it is difficult to define it so.

    I have not seen any evidence that prominent politicians during the smallpox era demanded that unvaccinated people should be banned from supermarkets and public transport. Does this evoke the spirit of fraternité?

    Finally, although never explicitly stated in Ireland, vaccine certification is certainly an effective measure to improve uptake of a vaccine.

    Whether one defines this as a nudge, gentle encouragement or coercion is a different argument. When I asked the Irish College of General Practitioners their position on the implementation of this system, they replied that ‘these people (the unvaccinated) may particularly benefit from national interventions to promote vaccination and limit the spread of COVID-19’.

    This statement is certainly open to interpretation. Undoubtedly, it has been effective in ensuring increased take-up of the vaccine in young adults – young people who may not have bothered otherwise with brother- and sisterhood.

    In a Machiavellian sense, this is the only true and potentially justifiable reason for a vaccine passport to be introduced in a civilised society. I cannot see another. Unfortunately, even 100% vaccination uptake, as in Gibraltar, has not resulted in the resolution of pandemic issues, with rising case numbers among the vaccinated causing all large Christmas activities to be cancelled.

    At this point in the pandemic, the above justification in Ireland no longer holds water. Ireland has one of the highest vaccination rates in the world, with 93% of the eligible adult population fully vaccinated.

    One should therefore assume that the remaining 7% of the ‘non-cooperating’ population are much more likely to consider a certification system coercive and will exacerbate their own fears of over-intervention by the State and unwelcome intrusion into their private lives.

    Someone who argues that this is for the benefit of the unvaccinated in protecting them from society does not do so in good faith. If someone does not wish to be inoculated at this point, there is more than a strong possibility that they do not wish to take up the kind offer of a jab.

    A certification system hence is more likely to have the inverse effect of its presumed benign intention. It is more likely to convince them further that the State wishes to harm and to segregate them against their wishes from a society that has already, by and large, shunned them.

    State of Distrust

    There has been no attempt to understand any of the multiple reasons why people do not wish to receive this vaccine. Distrust of the State, distrust of the pharmaceutical industry, distrust of the healthcare industry, anecdotal reports of adverse effects and concerns regarding under-reporting, the list is varied. The consistent link between all these issues/concerns is that of distrust.

    Many papers have been written on the subject of discussing vaccine hesitancy as a doctor with a patient. All suggest addressing hesitancy with compassion and understanding as decision-making around vaccination entails a complex mix of cultural, psychosocial, spiritual, political, and cognitive factors.[ii]

    Reasons for vaccine hesitancy fit into three categories: lack of confidence (in effectiveness, safety, the system, or policy makers), complacency (perceived low risk of acquiring VPDs), and lack of convenience (in the availability, accessibility, and appeal of immunization services, including time, place, language, and cultural contexts).

    All suggest addressing the patient’s concerns carefully, discussing with openness and honesty any potential side-effects as well as advocating the benefits, such as they are.

    Has any of this been done at any point during the pandemic with the vaccine hesitant? Vaccine passports are not a tool to advocate for immunisation in a humane and empathic manner and it is equally certain that the most effective way of fomenting further distrust is to patronise people for their ‘stupidity’ in doubting the effectiveness of a medical intervention, while downplaying the potential for any side-effects and then to mandate the intervention as a necessity for full participation in normal society, such as it is.

    Scapegoating

    Instead of focusing on and congratulating the 94% of the eligible adult population who have been vaccinated, we have decided to scapegoat and segregate the dirty few who have not complied with government directives.

    As a reminder, segregation has never been an attractive or effective feature of a functioning society. I make no lazy comparison to Nazi Germany, but rather suggest that people consider the State’s recent attitudes to same-sex relationships.

    It should not be forgotten that homosexuality was only decriminalised in Ireland in 1993. That was a horrible and unjust law, horridly intruding into the lives of normal people. Same-sex marriage was legalised six short years ago in 2015.

    Can any sane person reasonably make the case that it was legitimate or more importantly, healthy for a society to deny that two private citizens who love each other should be allowed to spend their lives together in a loving, equal relationship? That it was reasonable that same-sex marriage was such a danger to society that it had to remain illegal in the twenty-first century?

    By this logic, are the unvaccinated so lethally unclean that it is worth intentionally re-dividing society? That it is worth every citizen who wishes to eat in a restaurant having to demonstrate by law a private medical decision to a waiter that has no interest and no business in knowing same?

    The State is not a benign entity and is capable of dreadful, discriminatory decisions that have long-lasting impacts of the fabric of the country that we live in. Our long history of governmental corruption, cronyism and cover-ups at the cost to its people did not magically disappeared at the onset of a pandemic to be replaced by a wonderful, altruistic body guided by love and the rights of the individual.

    Marginalisation

    We should also consider the demographics of some of the people who do not wish to be vaccinated. People with lower levels of household income and those living in disadvantaged areas are demonstrably associated with increased likelihood of vaccine resistance and hesitancy.

    A recent survey also demonstrated that BAME people are a minimum of 25% less likely to take up the offer of the Covid vaccine.

    It is regularly reported that lockdowns and prolonged periods of state-imposed restrictions have had the most demonstrably negative effects on the exact population groups who are also hesitant to receive the vaccine.

    Therefore, we have managed to punish and further marginalise the very people who have suffered the most throughout this pandemic and will likely suffer the most in the years of anticipated turmoil ahead.

    This is not to denigrate the many wonderful, intelligent people who quite rightly question the manner in which they feel their country is being governed and directed but to highlight the unnecessary dual suffering that many people will encounter in the months and years ahead.

    In any other time, scepticism and resistance to dictates targeting minorities would be celebrated, not scorned. We should hold our leaders to a high standard at all times, not allow them easy opportunities for deflection from their own failings and label almost everything that does not agree with State narrative as “misinformation.”

    Again, instead of trying to understand why people do not wish to be injected with a treatment that they consider dangerous and unproven, and to try to convince in a humane and empathic manner, we have instead chosen to demonise and make them the culprits for the current issues that the hospital system faces in Ireland.

    Do we wish to follow the example of Singapore and begin charging patients who become ill and are unvaccinated by choice? Do we wish to follow the lead of Australia and send our citizens to quarantine camps against their wishes? Do we wish to follow the lead of Austria and lockdown the unvaccinated, and now mandate vaccines for the whole population?

    Why are these questions not being asked and answer by the opposition political parties in Ireland? Liberalism is defined as a political and social philosophy that promotes individual rights, civil liberties, democracy, and free enterprise and is supposed to be the cornerstone of left-wing politics.

    The presumed left, including Sinn Fein, Labour, the Social Democrats, People before Profit, have been pathetic in their lack of any attempt to hold the State to account. A strong opposition is the cornerstone of democracy, and it is not present currently in Ireland.

    Image (c) Daniele Idini.

    Public Health Department

    I have discussed vaccine certification with the local public health department in relation to the management of this pandemic. The doctor that I spoke to readily admitted that there is no medical indication for the use of vaccine certification and was shocked at the extension of the recent legislation in October.

    Hence, my surprise at the recent declarations by Colm Henry and Ina Kelly, president of the IMO, that the public should walk out of pubs or restaurants that are not asking for Covid 19 digital certificates.

    There remains no evidence whatsoever that vaccine certification has made any improvement to the management of the COVID-19 pandemic in any country that it has been used.

    An Israeli paper examining the effects of their ‘Green Pass’ concluded that apart from the coercive effects of increasing vaccine uptake[iii], there is no evidence that the use of a passport system reduces morbidity loads on a population.

    To repeat, there is no public health evidence for the intentional segregation of society. None. Zero. Nada. Zilch.

    Anyone who argues that there is should be immediately dismissed as a fool. However, if you wish to look at the data, the HSPC have kindly provided information on COVID-19 outbreaks in the Republic of Ireland.

    In May of 2021, there had been a grand total of two outbreaks attributed to hairdressers/personal grooming services. By November, there are now twenty-two recorded. In May, there were ten outbreaks attributed to public houses. By November, there have been forty more.

    Does anyone truly believe that presenting a piece of paper at the door achieves anything when the holder continues to have the potential to be highly infectious? There is no evidence that it improves either your safety or the safety of others.

    Image (c) Daniele Idini

    Misdirected Indication

    There has also been a recent effort to blame the unvaccinated for various sad occurrences that have occurred because of the lack of capacity in the HSE. Thus, it was reported that a transplant operation was cancelled because unvaccinated patients occupied ICU beds and the procedure was unable to go ahead.

    Blaming the unvaccinated for this is completely disingenuous and abdicates responsibility for decades of poor management. The reader should know that Ireland does not have a good reputation in the transplant world. We are currently 18th out of 24 countries in Europe, below Lithuania and Estonia in terms of organ transplantation per million people.

    In 2015, Dr David Hickey, the transplant surgeon described in the Irish Independent that he was the only pancreatic transplant surgeon in the State. Despite multiple offers to the HSE to mentor two people to take over his role, nothing was done. The pancreatic transplant program was then moved to another hospital setting, against advice and without consultation. At the time, no transplants, despite their life-saving nature, took place over a nine-month period.

    To consider that the people ‘clogging up the ICU’s’ are responsible for historically well-recognised governmental and state body failures is malicious.

    The 2019 Euro Health Consumer Index places Ireland in last position, below Albania, North Macedonia, Latvia and Romania, countries all with their own issues, in terms of outpatient hospital waiting lists.

    Ireland has the lowest rate of hospital consultants in the EU18, a fact heavily bemoaned by the Irish Medical Organisation. Shortages of GPs, shortages of nursing and allied health professionals, overcrowded emergency departments and public health failures have been reliable sources of outrage and headlines over the course of the past twenty years.

    Fortunately, there is now a perfect fall guy in the shape of an unvaccinated person to take the ire of the populace.

    The unvaccinated are at fault for five-year orthopaedic waiting lists, the unvaccinated are responsible for spiralling chronic diseases in an increasingly obese and unhealthy society. The unvaccinated are responsible for the lack of clinical staff living and working in this country.

    It would be laughable were it not for the real human cost of such misdirected indignation and hatred.

    If we are to blame the individual for the failings of the system, we should apply this logic to the others who place a heavier burden on the health system. The obese, the alcoholics, the smokers, the poor should all feel our wrath at the impact they place upon our hospitals. Perhaps an obesity cert would be an incentive for them to lose weight or keep them out of restaurants? That can only have positive results.

    Chaotic Interference

    Continuing along this path of chaotic interference in people’s lives will have iatrogenic consequences. Professor Helen Townsend, director of the Self-Harm Research Group in the University of Nottingham, has described the likely severe long-term consequences of lockdowns and that these have never been accounted for in policy making19.

    Has any consideration been given to the societal impacts of intentionally separating the ‘dirty dissenters’ from the rest of the country? If there is no public health evidence for overwhelming benefit, how can we justify such an enormous departure from normality?

    The ethical implications of these decisions have clearly not been fully considered, if at all. It should be noted that the National Public Health Emergency Team does not have any bioethical or legal representation, an amazing fact considering the enormous decisions that have been made on the basis of their recommendations over the course of the past twenty months.

    The Irish Council for Civil Liberties has repeatedly requested that such a representative should join NPHET, but this has been ignored. The ICCL, for what it is worth, has also stated their strong opposition to a domestic vaccine passport, stating that the system is discriminatory and has been developed without any meaningful consideration of human rights.

    And yet still we persist and tolerate further encroachment into both our and our children’s lives. 50,000 people can go to a football match in the Aviva stadium, the CEO of the HSE can drink and rub shoulders with sporting royalty indoors without a mask, yet we think it is appropriate that nine-year-old children should be masked and instructed not to attend nativity plays.

    190,000 children are currently living in poverty in Ireland, yet this is not a crisis worth addressing in the mainstream media. Instead, it is recommended to avoid playdates and sleepovers while Gary Barlow croons to thousands in the 3 Arena. It is preposterous and the antithesis of public health. It causes me great shame as a doctor that these measures are being carried out in the name of my profession.

    I am unable to convince myself that a system of vaccine certification is a reasonable or ethical idea in an essentially fully vaccinated adult population for a virus that is transmissible regardless of your vaccination status.

    Image (c) Daniele Idini.

    A Thought Experiment

    If you remain convinced that it is, I would like to propose a final thought experiment. Consider a politician or government that you dislike or fear. Consider your reaction if they were to have introduced a vaccine passport over the course of the past six months.

    Would you agree with segregation of society if Donal Trump suggested it? Would you clap wholeheartedly if Vladimir Putin encouraged marginalisation of a minority of people who have not broken any laws? Would you dismiss civil rights concerns if Bolsanaro was championing minority-blaming and hatred?

    If you would agree to all these questions, I would congratulate you on your single-minded conviction and realise that I will never convince you – as is assumed to be the case with all ‘anti-vaxxers’, a derogatory term that I despise.

    Coercion and essentially forced vaccination signifies a complete failure of scientific and public health messaging. My sympathies lie with the people who are not currently welcome to participate in society on the basis of one personal decision which has not broken any law.

    They have been stripped of their constitutional rights without seemingly without any recourse to due process. That should give anyone reason to pause and reflect. Without acknowledging it, we have become a country that has slipped, almost overnight, into an enduring state of fear and intolerance. I worry for the future and the country that my children will inhabit.

    [i] Anika Singanayagam, PhD et al, ‘Community transmission and viral load kinetics of the SARS-CoV-2 delta (B.1.617.2) variant in vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals in the UK: a prospective, longitudinal, cohort study’, The Lancet, October 29, 2021,  https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(21)00648-4/fulltext

    [ii] Shixin (Cindy) Shen and Vinita Dubey, ‘Addressing vaccine hesitancy: Clinical guidance for primary care physicians working with parents’, The College of Family Physicians of Canada, 2019 Mar; 65(3): 175–181. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6515949/

    [iii] Ruth Waitzburg, ‘The Israeli Experience with the “Green Pass” Policy Highlights Issues to Be Considered by Policymakers in Other Countries,’ November 2021, International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 18(21):11212. https://www.researchgate.net/publication/355819969_The_Israeli_Experience_with_the_Green_Pass_Policy_Highlights_Issues_to_Be_Considered_by_Policymakers_in_Other_Countries

  • Pandemic Considerations

    As an immediate disclaimer, I am a doctor training to be a general practitioner in Ireland and am a member of the Royal College of Physicians of Ireland. I have worked in the local hospital emergency department and Covid assessment hubs as well as a general practice surgery during the pandemic and have seen very unwell patients suffering with Covid-19 and the after-effects of same. I have friends who have lost parents and grandparents and understand the devastating effect that the virus has had on their lives. I absolutely do not underestimate the seriousness of this disease. I am fully vaccinated and recommend that patients are vaccinated should they so wish. I am vehemently against the concept of vaccine mandating and passports. I fully support the right to protest and detest the concept of censorship by large technology companies. I feel that in the current climate of extreme opinions on this topic, I must state all the above. I have no expertise in infectious diseases, public health or epidemiology. Like most doctors, regardless of whether they choose to admit it or not, my understanding of statistics is limited. Hence, I do not offer any opinion in this regard.

    The Doctor in Society

    The Covid-19 pandemic has been an ever-present part of our daily lives for over a year. There is little left to say that has not already been said in relation to the correct management of the virus on a national and international level. It appears – from the approaches of different countries around the globe – that it is impossible to reach anything approaching universal agreement on the best manner of protecting vulnerable people from the disease, while simultaneously protecting vulnerable people who also have suffered terribly because of the restrictive measures that governments have felt it necessary to enact in our societies. Hence, the purpose of this essay is not to provide an opinion as to the approaches adopted, but to discuss and examine some ethical considerations and the implications of our decisions.

    We should first consider the role of a doctor in society. John Berger wrote in A Fortunate Man, a seminal book on the life and work of a dedicated general practitioner in rural England, that ‘like an artist, or like anybody else who believes that his work justifies his life, Sassall – by our society’s miserable standards – is a fortunate man.’[i]

    Certainly, as a vocation, medicine is endlessly interesting and the care of people when they are unwell is incredibly rewarding, despite its demands. There is an intimacy between a doctor and his patient that is intangible and key to a successful therapeutic relationship. We occupy a privileged position in people’s lives as we often meet them when they are at their most vulnerable and most in need of help.

    Note the deliberate use of help as opposed to treatment. I use this word purposely because treatment in the general sense is not always appropriate when trying to improve a patient’s condition. Berger continues that a good doctor can be recognised as someone who ‘meets the deep but unformulated expectation of the sick for a sense of fraternity. He recognises them’. You’ll notice that the recognition does not include intelligence, curiosity or diligence, although these are all welcome attributes.

    Ethical Pillars

    Another important aspect of being a decent doctor in the true sense of the word is to regularly consider the four ethical pillars of medical practice. These are autonomy, justice, beneficence and non-maleficence. Acknowledging and adhering to these principles allows us to help and treat patients in a humane manner and should allow doctors to recognise the limits of our ability to protect people. This is an important point to emphasise. As physicians, we often see ourselves as lifesavers or life-preservers, but this is often not the case and creates unrealistic expectations for both the doctor and patient.

    Our primary function is to prevent unnecessary suffering and death where possible and to try to consider the effects of our treatments not just on the patient, but on the patient’s family and wider community. Beyond the above, we are capable of little else, which is in of itself, no mean feat.

    A significant risk in the practice of medicine is that in the search for ‘progress’, our hubris means that we are trying to cheat death on behalf of the patient with ever-increasing numbers of interventions, with often dubious effects on patients’ quality and quantity of life.

    This is often apparent in the field of oncology. For example, a recent paper published in JAMA in November 2020 examined the clinical trial data available on treatment outcomes of all novel cancer drugs approved for the first time between 2000 and 2016.[ii] 92 novel cancer drugs were approved by the FDA for 100 indications based on data from 127 clinical trials. Despite the enormous cost of both developing and treating patients with these drugs, the median absolute survival benefit was 2.4 months.

    This requires emphasis. 2.4 MONTHS of median survival.

    This is simply staggering and reflects that we may have lost our way in the medical community, approving medications for use without fully appreciating the implications of this decision i.e., if this person receives x drug at x cost, what effect will this have on the healthcare system as a whole? Does treating patients in this manner, with often experimental medications, benefit society as a whole or the pharmaceutical industry? This may require a ‘hard heart’ as described by Jim Stockdale in Thoughts of a Philosophical Fighter Pilot. The correct decision for the many is often the hardest on the few.

    Progress in Medical Science

    It goes without saying that it is essential to strive for progress in science and medicine. This should not require stating as I am in awe of the advances made every day in medical science. It is, however, equally essential to recognise the fundamentals of health and the requirements for same. The UN defines health as not just the absence of disease, it is a state of complete physical, mental and social well-being. Can we say, as doctors, whose role it is to help restore and maintain health, that any of our patients are healthy in the context of the events of past year? Are we striving to help our patients to be healthy or are we only treating their diseases as they develop? There is a subtle but significant difference.

    Ivan Illich, the philosopher, wrote extensively about the effects, both good and bad of doctors and medicine on not just the individual but on society in general.[iii]3 He recognised the amazing large-scale innovations in public health that have given us access to good food, safe water, sewage disposal etc, but he also recognised the potential for medicine and the medical profession to cause significant harm. The focus of his arguments relate to the adverse impact of medicine on society. His principal argument being that the medical profession was eroding the individual’s capacity to accept suffering and more importantly, the capacity to die one’s own death.

    As previously mentioned, our duty is to ameliorate suffering where possible and allow patients to suffer and die with dignity when this is appropriate. Our attempts to do more has the potential to lead to catastrophe, both physically and psychologically, because it can permanently remove a patient’s perception of control over their own being. Prominent examples include the current opioid epidemic in the US and benzodiazepine addiction issues here in Ireland. All developed under the guise of attempting to alleviate suffering, but instead mutating to continue to cause devastation to this day.

    Overdose deaths involving opioids, including prescription opioids, heroin, and synthetic opioids (like fentanyl), have increased over six times since 1999.[iv] Most of these deaths are attributable, unintentionally or not, to the medical profession. This is a sad reality. Simply because a treatment decision is well-intentioned does not protect the doctor or the patient from unintended circumstances.

    Hence, I would advocate where at all possible, conservative or ‘light touch’ medicine, promoting patient empowerment and autonomy. Where possible, I suggest promoting the ideal of health provided by William Landen: ‘To ensure good health; eat lightly, breathe deeply, live moderately, cultivate cheerfulness and maintain an interest in life’.

    Latter-day Clergy

    Physicians should be an occasional addendum to life; instead, we have increasingly assumed the role previously held by the clergy. This is not a positive development. Although the medical profession has not asked for this endowment, it has accepted it without significant resistance or understanding of the spiritual nature of the role. Many physicians are not consciously aware of the transference, creating further patient dependence and maladaptive behaviour patterns, creating the class of people known to doctors as ‘heart-sink’ patients. Medicalisation of existential angst manifesting as vague abdominal pain serves neither the doctor, the patient, nor society in general.

    Public health is an extension of medicine that is remarkably important but often ignored at a societal level. It has been defined simply as the science and art of preventing disease and is tasked with the promotion and protection of the health of entire populations. This is a gargantuan task and is arguably much more important than the other, more visible fields of medicine. While the aims of public health medicine are admirable, it would be easy to deduce that multiple aspects of modern public health, beyond the basics mentioned previously, had been failing miserably up to the onset of the pandemic.

    Levels of both child and adult obesity as well as type 2 diabetes are increasing year on year, chronic disease continues to over-burden every western healthcare system and smoking rates remain stubbornly high globally. All these issues, created by the cultures of excess and consumption that we inhabit, are likely to worsen in the years ahead, with multiplicative effects on successive generations in Ireland to the point where it is expected that our life expectancy and more importantly, healthspan, will decrease in the years ahead.[v]

    I mention this to illustrate the point that people rarely behave in a rational manner. This is especially evident at a population level. Therefore, one could logically decide in a public health capacity, to intervene in increasingly intrusive ways to ultimately improve the health of the population, through restriction of access to unhealthy pastimes and products. This would presumably entail banning cigarettes, alcohol, highly processed junk food and all other manners of potentially unhealthy choices. This would reduce the burden on our hospitals in both the short and long-term and allow improved access to care for a happier, healthier population.

    For example, the government of Bhutan has banned all sales of cigarettes in their country, with excellent health effects to date. The Prime Minister of Bhutan took the decision because he stated that it was the right thing to do for the health of the country’s citizens.[vi]

    However, it would be argued vociferously that any such decrees would impinge on an individual’s rights to individual choice, not to mention the enormous loss in tax revenue to the State from the sale of such items. The Irish government is estimated to generate two billion euro a year in tax revenue from the sale of cigarettes alone. Interestingly, it is estimated that we spend the same amount on the management of smoking-related diseases in our healthcare system, thus negating this as an argument against banning cigarettes.

    If this were indeed implemented in Ireland, and more particularly in the case of alcohol, there would be immediate cries of excessive intervention in the private lives of the citizens of the State. This would be a perfectly reasonable argument in the absence of a state of emergency, such as we find ourselves in over the course of the past fifteen months.

    It must be stated that the effects of cigarettes and alcohol are not limited to the individual. Anyone who argues this has not had to wait for an outpatient appointment in an overcrowded cardiology or respiratory clinic for three years. One should remember though, that there has been a healthcare and trolley ‘emergency’ in Ireland since Mary Harney announced one twenty years ago and there has been no improvement whatsoever in the annual crisis figures, with increasing amounts of the State budget allocated to the attempted provision of healthcare. In 2018, the Irish state spent €22.5 billion on the healthcare system, which equates to 11.4% of Gross National Income (GNI).[vii] People blame the healthcare system but the system, while dysfunctional, may not truly be to blame. Perhaps, as a society, should we shoulder some of the responsibility?

    State Interventions in Pandemics

    Thus, after thinking about some of the arguments that could be made for state intervention in the lives of its citizens, I think it is important to consider the various ethical approaches that could underpin our ongoing approach to the pandemic.

    A utilitarian approach was initially adopted by the UK government, aiming for the concept of achieving herd immunity to maximise the collective interest. As is commonly known, this was quickly abandoned as the healthcare system came under increasing strain. This approach is not without precedent, and I do not refer to the management plan decided upon by the Swedish government.

    In 1968, the world was struck by an influenza pandemic known as the ‘Hong Kong flu’, killing approximately 4 million people globally, according to the Encyclopaedia Britannica. A paper published in The Lancet examined the response to the 1968 pandemic and noted that the British government was extremely passive in its approach.[viii]

    Fearing that the press would have a field day if it issued a prominent warning about the pandemic, it left it to local medical officers of health to decide on the most appropriate course of action. Interestingly, publishers were also reluctant to risk stoking public fears, ‘a reflection perhaps of heightened anxieties due to the Cold War and the launch of Sputnik, as well as greater respect for medical experts and deference to authority’. This approach undoubtedly led to many deaths and interestingly, affected people under the age of 65 more than the elderly.

    It can certainly be argued that the fabric of British society was maintained at the time, possibly for the greater good in terms of long-term ramifications. Contrast this with the media response to the pandemic today. The Guardian newspaper is one of many which has a live ‘coronavirus update’ section on its website for the past year. Does the information provided serve the individual or the advertisers paying for space?

    Ireland’s Kantian Approach

    By way of comparison, Ireland seems to have adopted a Kantian approach to the management of the pandemic. It is unclear whether this is by accident or by design. In an interesting paper by Gerard Delanty, he quotes the philosopher Jurgen Habernass, the world’s leading political philosopher.[ix]11 He stated that ‘the efforts of the State to save every single human life must have absolute priority over a utilitarian offsetting of the undesirable economic costs’. This equates to, in layman’s terms, ‘lockdown first, ask human rights questions later.’

    While Kantian ideals are superficially attractive, I worry that the implications of following such an approach will have long-term repercussions. One can argue that that the degree of government overreach into the lives of its citizens is deontologically unacceptable and that multiple human rights violations have occurred in this country and may occur again in the near future.

    A report commissioned by the Irish Human Rights and Equality Commission in 2020 stated that ‘not only is Covid-19 more than a public health crisis, but it is also arguably the most significant set of human rights and equality challenges that Ireland has ever faced’[x]12 The report highlights multiple areas of concern regarding the State’s and NPHET’s issuing and maintenance of emergency powers. Principally, these included the blurring of the boundaries between legal requirements and public health guidance, the potential for emergency measures and their enforcement to disproportionately affect certain disadvantaged and more vulnerable groups and the lack of human rights and equality expertise in the decision-making structure put in place to tackle the pandemic, or in the systems that implement and scrutinise these decisions.

    These are significant issues that have not been acknowledged or addressed by the Government or NPHET. This should be of significant concern as it belies the seriousness of the situation. I must stress that I do not suggest that NPHET or the government are made up of morally ambiguous people. They are not the real issue. I honestly believe that they are decent people working hard in the most extraordinary circumstances that we have witnessed in most of our lifetimes. It is in this ‘state of exception’ however, that we must be at our most fierce in the assiduous monitoring and protection of our civil liberties.

    Overreach?

    Giorgio Agamben, the Italian philosopher, has warned repeatedly against the implementation and continuation of emergency powers as a normal paradigm of government.[xi] He questions the imposed limitation of freedom in a desire for perceived safety and security and has previously discussed this issue in his examination of the surveillance powers afforded to the US government after the events of 9/11. He warns against fear and stresses the importance of society guarding itself against any form of extreme government, regardless of perceived benevolence.

    Matthew Crawford, the philosopher cum motorcycle mechanic, also warns against the culture of ‘safetyism’, describing a cycle whereby ‘the safer we become, the more intolerable any further risk becomes’ and that ‘once emergency powers are passed, they are seldom relinquished.[xii]

    Do we genuinely believe in Ireland that we are immune to benevolent autocracy? Has the question even been asked in the public domain here? Does the absence of questioning and discussion not demonstrate the lack of any public intellectual discourse that might be useful to allow individuals to consider their own ethical responsibilities in a pandemic?

    By corralling people in their homes, the State has acted as a helicopter parent, pacifying us with off-licences and pandemic unemployment payments. The decision was made that people were not trustworthy enough to consider their fellow man and behave accordingly.

    Anti-lockdown campaigners have repeatedly pointed to the relative ‘success story’ of Sweden in its approach to the pandemic. Perhaps, it has nothing to do with the manner of the imposition of the restrictions but to do with how seriously the population took the virus and were satisfied to adhere to advice from the public health authorities. There was reciprocal trust between the State and its’ people. Because essentially, that is the difference between the population groups.

    I would ask people to ignore the behaviour of the virus and instead to consider how people in different countries behave on an individual basis. In Japan, lockdowns have not occurred as they are deemed illegal. However, anecdotally, they take virus very seriously and take what could be regarded as excessive personal risk avoidance i.e., wearing hazmat suits in airports when travelling (this was witnessed recently in Charles de Gaulle Airport in Paris).

    Again, I must re-state that I do not believe that lockdown decisions in Ireland were made with ill-intention. They were made to ostensibly protect the vulnerable in society i.e., the elderly. By and large, despite some nursing home and hospital scandals, this has been effective and a healthcare system, bloated and over-burdened for decades, has avoided a presumed disaster. These are the benefits of the most prolonged and nominally if not practically, the most stringent lockdown measures in Europe.

    The Law of Unintended Consequences

    However, one should also consider and cite the law of unintended consequences i.e., that the actions of governments always have effects that are not anticipated. Hence, it would be unrealistic to assume that our seventeen months of restrictions will have no harmful side-effects. Unfortunately, the vulnerable in society are still those who have and will suffer the most.

    Elderly patients, the focus of our concern, have deconditioned before my eyes over the course of the three lockdowns enacted here and many of my colleagues are reporting similar experiences. Loss of muscle and bone strength has a direct impact on the morbidity and mortality of an elderly population.[xiii]

    Physically active older adults (≥60 years) are at a reduced risk of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, breast and prostate cancer, fractures, recurrent falls, ADL disability and functional limitation and cognitive decline, dementia, Alzheimer’s disease, and depression. They also experience healthier ageing trajectories, better quality of life and improved cognitive functioning. Inactivity over the past seventeen months will have dreadful ramifications for a significant proportion of the people that we have sought to protect.

    They spend their time with their families in a state of anxiety, fearful of becoming unwell but also guilty at the burden placed on their families. Loneliness and social isolation have increased dramatically. This will have multiplicative effects in the years to come as there is a strong body of evidence to demonstrate that cognitive decline and mortality rates are doubled among people who suffer because of isolation and loneliness.[xiv]

    The ESRI now predicts that tens of thousands of people will permanently lose their jobs, and that up to 250,000 will remain unemployed at the end of 2021[xv]17. Perhaps many of these jobs would have been lost because of the pandemic and not the restrictions, but the negative societal impact of such job losses on people in lower socioeconomic groups cannot be overstated, further worsening inequality and poverty.

    In Ireland, the lockdown has been an inconvenience for the middle class, but I state without hesitation, that the longer this persists, the more devastating the blow will be to the vulnerable in society and the more difficult it will be to recover.

    Socioeconomic Status

    Socioeconomic status has a much more significant impact on health status than medicine and medical care. To provide a stark example, In England, the gap in life expectancy (LE) at birth between the least and most deprived areas was 9.4 years for males and 7.4 years for females in 2015 to 2017; for healthy life expectancy (HLE) it was 19.1 years and 18.8 years respectively.[xvi] This is in one of the richest countries in the world, with a socialised healthcare system lauded and envied globally. It is essential that we remember this fact if we wish to strive for a decent society. I stress again that lockdowns and continued restrictions will affect the most deprived in our own society and further widen the gap of income inequality.

    Finally, the effect of state intervention must be considered on the most vulnerable cohort in society, our children. Lockdowns have been demonstrated to have increased the number of adverse childhood experiences suffered by vulnerable children.[xvii]

    The common argument in favour of lockdowns is that their adverse effects are not multiplicative. I would argue the opposite. The longer these measures remain in place, the larger the long-term effects on children. A study in Oxford demonstrated that children had essentially learned nothing over the course of the pandemic year through Zoom.[xviii]. It is estimated that 100,000 children did not return to school in the UK after the most recent lockdown or were defined as ‘severely absent.’[xix] When will disadvantaged children regain the educational ground that they have lost and what will be the effect of this life on their adult lives?

    The government tells us to stay safe and hold firm, slogans that signify nothing except a lack of imagination. They asked that the citizens of the State protect the health service by adhering to stay at home guidelines, which were enforceable by law. The question must be asked why the State has not applied the same urgency to the trolley and hospital bed crisis, which has been present annually for at least twenty years?

    How many poor people have died unnecessarily because of over-crowding or inequitable access to healthcare services? Why was the Cervical check scandal allowed to unfold? Why the Mother and Baby Home scandal? Why are we building a behemoth Children’s Hospital that is arguably not suitable for purpose and will be by its’ finish, the most expensive hospital in the world? Why does this occur while there are 193,600 children living in poverty in Ireland,[xx] considering the wealth that this country currently generates. One should ask is the state truly worried about its citizens or its systems of ‘care’? There is a significant difference.

    Viktor Frankl

    Finally, we should consider the role of the individual in this pandemic. Victor Frankl, the famous neurologist and founder of logotherapy, wrote about the nature of life and its meaning in the context of his experiences as a prisoner in Auschwitz and his subsequent return to society.

    In Man’s Search for Meaning and Yes to Life, he explores the themes of meaning and his own treatment of patients with severe mental illness. In summary, his own severe despair, which often afflicted him, only served to convince him further of its meaning and the importance of finding meaning in life.

    This does not necessarily mean happiness as this is a more modern obsession. We have no right to happiness in the modern sense. Life does not expect you to be happy or sad or any other emotional state. Life simply is. Within these confines, which are as limited or limitless as you choose, what you emotionally feel during this period is your interpretation of the experience, nothing more or less.

    Tragedy constantly stalks us and will visit at various points during our lives, regardless of external environmental factors. As a result, negative visualisation is a concept that the Stoics advocate. Marcus Aurelius wrote of putting his children to bed at night and imagining them dying. This was not done in a sociopathic sense, but to remind him of the precious time that he had with his children, to value this time and to appreciate that they may be taken from him at any point.

    Perhaps, societally, we could improve our lot by engaging in this thought process more often, not to upset us but to improve our appreciation of what we have now and to steel ourselves against the difficulties that we may face in the future. It encourages difficult thinking and bravery. It may often be easier to retreat to the arms of someone/something else to make decisions for you but is this the correct decision? This pandemic is an external, unfair devastation but I believe that our society, as imperfect and flawed as it is, can adjust and limp forward. I trust in people to make the correct decisions for themselves at this point in the pandemic.

    In Summary

    I repeat my claim to no expertise on the management of a pandemic. As a doctor, I am asked to assess people’s problems, both medical and otherwise on multiple occasions throughout my daily work. While I am required to make my decision with relative confidence where possible, key to being a decent physician is to constantly consider that I may be wrong in my treatment decision and that my differential diagnosis remains broad.

    I believe that at this point, ongoing and future mandated restrictions are likely to be more harmful than beneficial to society and that we should carefully consider the course that we plot and what we value in life. Safety should not be valued above all else and iatrogenesis has terrible implications for health. I write this on a day when NPHET has recommended to government that indoor dining should be restricted to people who are fully vaccinated only. Is this what we have become?

    All images © Daniele Idini

    [i] Berger J. A Fortunate Man: the story of a country doctor. London: RCGP; 2005

    [ii] Ladanie A, Schmitt AM, Speich B, et al. Clinical Trial Evidence Supporting US Food and Drug Administration Approval of Novel Cancer Therapies Between 2000 and 2016. JAMA Netw Open. 2020;3(11):e2024406. doi:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2020.24406

    [iii] Illich, I. (1975). Medical nemesis: The expropriation of health. London: Calder & Boyars.

    [iv] Wide-ranging online data for epidemiologic research (WONDER). Atlanta, GA: CDC, National Center for Health Statistics; 2020.

    [v] Woolf SH, Schoomaker H. Life Expectancy and Mortality Rates in the United States, 1959-2017. JAMA. 2019;322(20):1996–2016. doi:10.1001/jama.2019.16932

    [vi] Ugen S Bhutan: the world’s most advanced tobacco control nation? Tobacco Control 2003;12:431-433.

    [vii] CSO https://www.cso.ie/en/releasesandpublications/ep/p-syi/statisticalyearbookofireland2020/soc/health/

    [viii] Honigsbaum M: Revisiting the 1957 and 1968 influenza pandemics The Lancet 13–19 June 2020 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7247790/

    [ix] Delanty, Gerard (2020) Six political philosophies in search of a virus: critical perspectives on the coronavirus pandemic. Discussion Paper. London School of Economics, London https://www.lse.ac.uk/european-institute/Assets/Documents/LEQS-Discussion-Papers/LEQSPaper156.pdf

    [x] Irish Humans Rights and Equality Commission, https://www.ihrec.ie/documents/irelands-emergency-powers-during-the-covid-19-pandemic/

    [xi] Stephen Humphreys, Legalizing Lawlessness: On Giorgio Agamben’s State of ExceptionEuropean Journal of International Law, Volume 17, Issue 3, 1 June 2006, Pages 677–687, https://academic.oup.com/ejil/article/17/3/677/2756274

    [xii] Matthew Crawford, ‘The Hypocrisy of Safetyism’, Unherd, May 15th, 2020, https://unherd.com/2020/05/the-hypocrisy-of-safetyism/

    [xiii] Hwang, T., Rabheru, K., Peisah, C., Reichman, W., & Ikeda, M. (2020). Loneliness and social isolation during the COVID-19 pandemic. International Psychogeriatrics, 32(10), 1217-1220. doi:10.1017/S1041610220000988 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7306546/

    [xiv] Hwang, T., Rabheru, K., Peisah, C., Reichman, W., & Ikeda, M. (2020). Loneliness and social isolation during the COVID-19 pandemic. International Psychogeriatrics, 32(10), 1217-1220. doi:10.1017/S1041610220000988

    [xv] Quarterly Economic Commentary, Spring, 2021, ESRI, https://www.esri.ie/system/files/publications/QEC2021SPR_0.pdf

    [xvi] Office of National Statistics, https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/healthinequalities/bulletins/healthstatelifeexpectanciesbyindexofmultipledeprivationimd/2015to2017/

    [xvii] Per Engzell, Arun Frey, Mark D. Verhagen  Learning loss due to school closures during the COVID-19 pandemic Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Apr 2021, 118 (17) e2022376118; DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2022376118 https://www.pnas.org/content/118/17/e2022376118

    [xviii] ‘Kids can’t catch up if they don’t show up’ The Centre for Social Justice,  https://www.centreforsocialjustice.org.uk/library/kids-cant-catch-up-if-they-dont-show-up?utm_medium=email&utm_source=CampaignMonitor_Editorial&utm_campaign=LNCH%20%2020210628%20%20House%20ads%20%20JO+CID_c144dc407b002e4fa6548baa2389bf59

    [xix] Ibid https://www.centreforsocialjustice.org.uk/library/kids-cant-catch-up-if-they-dont-show-up?utm_medium=email&utm_source=CampaignMonitor_Editorial&utm_campaign=LNCH%20%2020210628%20%20House%20ads%20%20JO+CID_c144dc407b002e4fa6548baa2389bf59

    [xx] Social Justice Ireland, https://www.socialjustice.ie/content/policy-issues/more-637000-people-are-still-living-poverty-ireland-despite-modest