{"id":10799,"date":"2021-02-04T19:21:46","date_gmt":"2021-02-04T19:21:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cassandravoices.com\/?p=10799"},"modified":"2021-02-04T19:21:46","modified_gmt":"2021-02-04T19:21:46","slug":"covid-19-in-ireland-landfall","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/casswp.eutonom.eu\/index.php\/2021\/02\/04\/covid-19-in-ireland-landfall\/","title":{"rendered":"Covid-19 in Ireland: Landfall"},"content":{"rendered":"

In August of last year I wrote an article pointing to the impending consequence of the Irish government\u2019s rolling lockdown policy, \u2018The Perfect Storm<\/a><\/span>\u2019[i]<\/a> gathering on the horizon over the country. By that I meant a significant second wave of Covid-19 \u2013 to hit this winter. I made that prediction based on the following factors:<\/span><\/p>\n

An elevated number of potential viral hosts, which is a consequence of suppression of natural-immunity.<\/em><\/p>\n

Increased life of the virus in the external environment due to decreased daylight<\/em><\/p>\n

Raised levels of social anxiety and subsequent susceptibility to illness\/infection<\/em><\/p>\n

Continued persistence of the virus at low levels within Irish society<\/em><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

The \u2018storm\u2019 made landfall at the start of January, leading to the imposition of an extreme lockdown for the third time \u2013 with children denied their constitutional right to an education \u2013\u00a0 amid renewed fears the hospital system would be overwhelmed, as many elderly in care homes passed away once again.<\/p>\n

Sadly, this ‘third’ wave actually commenced in week 48 of 2020 (22\/11\/2020), while the country was still under Level 5 Lockdown restrictions<\/em>, according to a report by the HSPC<\/a><\/span>.[ii]<\/a><\/p>\n

Could additional deaths have been averted if the Taoiseach had not sought \u2018a meaningful Christmas<\/a><\/span>\u2019; or if NEPHT\u2019s advice had been followed to the letter \u2013 permitting house visits rather than opening restaurants and gastropubs<\/a><\/span>[iii]<\/a> at the start of December? Based on the HSPC report that seems doubtful. And I would question whether most Irish people would have willingly foregone sociability throughout the depths of winter \u2013 there was certainly no political clamour to cancel Christmas \u2013 having endured near-constant lockdown since March. But you never know.<\/p>\n

Furthermore, without a Christmas spending spree many indigenous retailers and restaurateurs might have been forced out of business \u2013 to the unrestrained joy of Jeff Bezos, Tescos and the rest.<\/p>\n

But in Ireland, as ever, we desperately need someone to blame third time round; anyone other than NPHET that has managed to preserve a reputation for scientific insight despite the damage it is doing to the country. So, instead of questioning the government\u2019s response, youngsters \u2013 who may have availed of a brief chink of light to socialize \u2013 are scapegoated.<\/p>\n

Other than that we find talk of selfish immigrants returning home over Christmas to see loved ones. And now attacks on those who escaped the overwhelming doom and gloom for a post-Christmas break. Yet, whatever one\u2019s thoughts on the sustainability of flying, it is notable that just 1% of cases since the pandemic began have been traced to travel abroad<\/a><\/span>.<\/p>\n

Lockdown Policy<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

In the midst of any crisis scientific arguments compete to establish the best way forward. In the case of Covid-19 in Ireland \u2018the argument\u2019 has been remarkably one-sided. Discussions in the media are generally over the severity of lockdowns to be employed \u2013 this hitherto unheard of public health intervention with enormous collateral damage, which has somehow been normalised.<\/p>\n

From the outset I have been convinced that the Irish government at the prompting of the WHO \u2013 along with most other Western governments \u2013 adopted an erroneous approach, based on a flawed epidemiological assessment, which led Leo Varadkar to suggest there could be a staggering 85,000 deaths<\/a><\/span>[iv]<\/a> in Ireland.<\/p>\n

Virtually alone in Europe, the Swedish health authorities (relatively free of political interference) stood apart, refusing to lockdown in March, 2020. I would argue that this softer approach has been to the benefit of the vast majority of people living there \u2013 and may even lead to a lower death toll<\/a><\/span> in the end \u2013 compared to the trauma of lockdowns experienced by citizens in most other European countries.<\/p>\n

Notably, during the first wave almost 92% of confirmed deaths from Covid-19<\/a><\/span> in Ireland were among over sixty-five-year-olds,[v]<\/a> and when this Irish cohort is compared to Sweden\u2019s considerably older population a very different picture emerges; in contrast to the usual truck of \u2018deaths per capita\u2019 and \u2018deaths per million.\u2019<\/p>\n

Hats off to the impressively organised states of Norway and Finland, where Covid-19 mortality has remained very low indeed, but vigorous track and trace strategy operating in these countries have proved ineffective elsewhere; even Germany is floundering this winter, having been locked down for months.<\/p>\n

Revealingly, in March 2020 the Director-General of the Norwegian Institute for Public Health Camilla Stoltenberg<\/span><\/a>[vi]<\/a> recommended that her government should keep schools open \u2013 as in Sweden \u2013 and was advocating last June for a softer approach in the likely event of a second wave.<\/p>\n