{"id":9463,"date":"2020-09-20T13:09:16","date_gmt":"2020-09-20T12:09:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cassandravoices.com\/?p=9463"},"modified":"2020-09-20T13:09:16","modified_gmt":"2020-09-20T12:09:16","slug":"covid-19-in-ireland-elusive-facts","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/casswp.eutonom.eu\/index.php\/2020\/09\/20\/covid-19-in-ireland-elusive-facts\/","title":{"rendered":"Covid-19 in Ireland: Elusive Facts"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em><strong>No facts without Judgment<br \/>\n<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Facts alone are wanted in life. Plant nothing else, and root out everything else. You can only form the minds of reasoning animals upon Facts: nothing else will ever be of any service to them.<br \/>\n<\/em>Mr Gradgrind from Charles Dickens\u2019s <em>Hard Times<\/em> (1854).<\/p>\n<p><em>These are facts the heart can feel; yet they call for careful study before they become clear to the intellect.<br \/>\n<\/em><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><a style=\"color: #0000ff;\" href=\"https:\/\/cassandravoices.com\/history\/albert-camus-and-the-decline-of-the-public-intellectual\/\">Albert Camus<\/a><\/span>, <em>The Myth of Sisyphus<\/em> (1955).<\/p>\n<p>The philosopher Alasdair MacIntyre wrote that \u2018facts, like telescopes and wigs for gentlemen, were a seventeenth-century invention.\u2019 The term is derived from the Latin \u2018factum,\u2019 meaning \u2018a deed, an action and sometimes in scholastic Latin an event or occasion.\u2019 MacIntyre was not dismissing the importance of gleaning evidence from sources, or deriving conclusions from scientific studies, but asserting that no fact is ever \u2018independent of judgment.\u2019<a href=\"#_edn1\" name=\"_ednref1\">[i]<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Over the course of the current pandemic, as a recent opinion piece in the <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><a style=\"color: #0000ff;\" href=\"https:\/\/blogs.bmj.com\/bmj\/2020\/07\/22\/managing-uncertainty-in-the-covid-19-era\/\">British Medical Journal<\/a><\/span> puts it:<\/p>\n<p><em>uncontested facts\u2014things that are ascertainable, reproducible, transferable and predictable\u2014tend to be elusive. Most decisions must be based on information that is flawed (imperfectly measured, with missing data), uncertain (contested, perhaps with low sensitivity or specificity), proximate (relating to something one stage removed from the real phenomenon of interest) or sparse (only available for some aspects of the problem).<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Similarly, the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.newstatesman.com\/culture\/books\/2019\/05\/eh-carr-what-is-history-truth-subjectivity-facts\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">historian E. H. Carr<\/span><\/a> considered facts to be \u2018like fish on the fishmonger\u2019s slab. The historian collects them, takes them home and cooks and serves them.\u2019 Thus partisan outlooks have always coloured understandings of historic events. Carr recalls: \u2018Our picture of Greece in the 5th century BC is defective not primarily because so many of the bits have been accidentally lost, but because it is, by and large, the picture formed by a tiny group of people in the city of Athens.\u2019<\/p>\n<p>Journalists and editors in writing \u2018the first rough draft of history\u2019 therefore make judgments in determining facts. Unsurprisingly, during a global pandemic Covid-19 deaths and diagnoses are given greater factual weight than the equivalent statistics for heart disease, cancer or influenza. This is quite apart from deaths in developing countries from tuberculosis, AIDS and malaria, which are <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><a style=\"color: #0000ff;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/d41586-020-02334-0\">set to double this year<\/a><\/span> in part owing to the intense focus on Covid-19 \u2013 particularly in Africa which by mid-<a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencemag.org\/news\/2020\/08\/pandemic-appears-have-spared-africa-so-far-scientists-are-struggling-explain-why\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">August had experienced just 23,000 deaths<\/span><\/a> from Covid-19.<\/p>\n<p>Any journalist\u2019s judgment in determining facts is not necessarily a product of sinister machinations, but orthodoxies and received opinions are easily enshrined in news organisations that are patronised, or owned outright, by vested interests, which throughout history have \u2018manufactured\u2019 consent.<\/p>\n<p>Moreover, as <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><a style=\"color: #0000ff;\" href=\"https:\/\/cassandravoices.com\/history\/the-public-intellectual-series-noam-chomsky\/\">Noam Chomsky<\/a><\/span> put it in a famous interview with Andrew Marr, there is \u2018a filtering system\u2019 that starts in kindergarten which \u2018selects for obedience and subordination.\u2019 Chomsky intimates that most journalists that rise to the top of major news organisations are conformists, including Marr.<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Noam Chomsky Stumps Andrew Marr\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/lLcpcytUnWU?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>The pandemic has exposed the fragility of contemporary journalism in the era of the Internet, which, arguably, has exhibited over-deference to scientific authority, even where those authorities have proffered accounts that have proved wildly inaccurate, or contradictory. This passivity seems to be a feature of what Nick Davies has described as \u2018<span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><a style=\"color: #0000ff;\" href=\"https:\/\/cassandravoices.com\/current-affairs\/covid-19-a-simple-moral-calculus\/\">churnalism<\/a><\/span>\u2019, whereby journalists become passive processors of \u2018unchecked, second-hand material, much of it contrived by PR to serve a political or commercial interest.\u2019<\/p>\n<p><strong><em>Fake News<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>In the <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><a style=\"color: #0000ff;\" href=\"https:\/\/cassandravoices.com\/current-affairs\/global\/democracy-in-decay-steve-bannon-and-jordan-peterson\/\">Internet era<\/a><\/span> we have witnessed an onslaught of so-called \u2018fake news,\u2019 which are accounts departing from journalistic convention that enter the realm of fiction and outright distortion.<\/p>\n<p>This is not, however, entirely novel. It is axiomatic that truth is the first casualty of war, <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><a style=\"color: #0000ff;\" href=\"https:\/\/news.harvard.edu\/gazette\/story\/2020\/05\/what-happens-after-a-pandemic-or-a-war-is-over\/\">a metaphor constantly applied to this pandemic<\/a><\/span>. Journalists embedded in power structures have long spun outright falsehoods. We need only cast our mind back to uncritical coverage of claims around Weapons of the Mass Destruction prior to the invasion of Iraq in 2003, or the misleading accounts of <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><a style=\"color: #0000ff;\" href=\"https:\/\/cassandravoices.com\/current-affairs\/global\/corporate-media-bias-against-the-cuban-revolution\/\">Cuba in the U.S. press<\/a><\/span>.<\/p>\n<p>Nonetheless, in this context such claims have become more outrageous, and even comical, with social media \u2013 <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Facebook<\/span> in particular \u2013 acting as a conduit for misinformation from non-mainstream outlets, granting individuals unprecedented platforms to project fears, fantasies and delusions that are often manipulated by shadowy agencies, such as Cambridge Analytica.<\/p>\n<p>An apparent antidote to fake news has arrived in the form of fact-checking websites. While these may succeed in exposing outright falsehoods \u2013 which is undoubtedly important in an era of <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><a style=\"color: #0000ff;\" href=\"https:\/\/cassandravoices.com\/science-environment\/environment\/to-the-ends-of-the-earth-earth-day-50-years-on\/\">climate <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">change<\/span><\/a><\/span> \u2013 we should also examine <em>which<\/em> facts are being checked and also, <em>why<\/em> there are discrepancies in mainstream accounts. The funding for such sites also merits scrutiny. <em>The facts do not speak for themselves<\/em>.<\/p>\n<p><strong><em>#CoronaVirusFacts Alliance<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>In March this year the Irish online news website, <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><a style=\"color: #0000ff;\" href=\"http:\/\/www.thejournal.ie\"><em>www.thejournal.ie<\/em><\/a><\/span> announced it had \u2018<span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><a style=\"color: #0000ff;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.thejournal.ie\/thejournal-factcheck-covid19-facts-5052758-Mar2020\/\">joined a worldwide project of factcheckers debunking claims about Covid-19<\/a><\/span>.\u2019 According to their report: \u2018This project, called the #CoronaVirusFacts Alliance, comprises more than 100 factcheckers around the world and it is the largest collaborative factchecking project ever,\u2019<\/p>\n<p>That global alliance was launched in January by the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.poynter.org\/coronavirusfactsalliance\/\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Poynter Institute<\/span><\/a>:<\/p>\n<p><em>when the spread of the virus was restricted to China but already causing rampant misinformation globally. The World Health Organization now classifies this issue as an infodemic \u2014 and the Alliance is on the front lines in the fight against it.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>This global response is in line with a war-gaming exercise for a global pandemic (coincidentally a fictional coronavirus: Coronavirus Associated Pulmonary Syndrome) called <a href=\"https:\/\/www.centerforhealthsecurity.org\/event201\/\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Event 201<\/span><\/a> organised by The Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security in partnership with the World Economic Forum and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. In this exercise where no one has immunity from that virus, the model predicts the pandemic will only end when 80 percent of the world\u2019s population has been infected, which takes 18 months and results in 65 million deaths.<\/p>\n<p>The participants addressed the issue of disinformation and misinformation from \u2018state sponsored groups\u2019 and specifically pointed to the importance of \u2018fact-checking efforts.\u2019<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Event 201 Pandemic Exercise: Segment 4, Communications Discussion and Epilogue Video\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/LBuP40H4Tko?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>Notably, the Poynter Institute has received charitable donations from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation of<a href=\"https:\/\/www.gatesfoundation.org\/How-We-Work\/Quick-Links\/Grants-Database\/Grants\/2015\/11\/OPP1138320\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"> $382,000 in 2015<\/span><\/a>, earmarked for improving \u2018the accuracy in worldwide media of claims related to global health and development.\u2019 The organisation now receives <a href=\"https:\/\/www.poynter.org\/major-funders\/\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">donations<\/span><\/a> from, among others, Facebook, Google News Initiative and climate-change denying <a href=\"https:\/\/www.desmogblog.com\/charles-koch\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Charles Koch<\/span><\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><strong><em>Died \u2018From\u2019 or \u2018With\u2019?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Most of <em>www.thejournal.ie<\/em>\u2019s investigations into online claims result in slam dunks, where obvious fake news is dismissed. This may indeed be in the public interest; although it is questionable how many people actually believe claims such as that children are going to be <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><a style=\"color: #0000ff;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.thejournal.ie\/factcheck-ireland-children-sex-education-curriculum-masturbation-5158825-Jul2020\/\">taught how to masturbate as part of their education<\/a><\/span>, or that <a href=\"https:\/\/www.thejournal.ie\/debunked-bill-gates-cia-briefing-factcheck-5111218-May2020\/\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Bill Gates briefed the CIA in 2005 on a vaccine against religious fanatics<\/span><\/a>. This latter claim, interestingly, was also <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/article\/uk-factcheck-gates-fundamentalists-penta-idUSKBN22P35M\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">debunked on other fact-checking sites<\/span><\/a>, demonstrating that <em>www.thejournal.ie<\/em> is a small cog in a global campaign.<\/p>\n<p>More relevantly to Ireland, in carrying out its fact-checking remit <em>www.journal.ie<\/em> has bolstered the Irish government\u2019s emphasis on the serious danger posed by Covid-19 to all age groups. Consolidating government messaging during a pandemic may be considered a civic duty, but it can also over-simplify \u201celusive\u201d facts that merit revisiting.<\/p>\n<p>On July 24<sup>th<\/sup>, Radio DJ Niall Boylan\u2019s tweet from July 14<sup>th<\/sup> claiming just eight people under the age of sixty-five had died from Covid-19 became <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><a style=\"color: #0000ff;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.thejournal.ie\/covid-19-deaths-2-5158759-Jul2020\/\">the subject of a fact-checking inquiry<\/a><\/span>.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">It\u2019s shocking that only 8 people under 65 in Ireland died from Covid 19 and we destroyed &amp; continue to destroy the economy. Every one of the 1700 deaths matter but most did not die from Covid 19 and just happened to have a positive test.We need logical responses &amp; not hysteria<\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Niall Boylan (@Niall_Boylan) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/Niall_Boylan\/status\/1283093428046356480?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">July 14, 2020<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>The relevant fact checker, R\u00f3n\u00e1n Duffy, recalled that the Health Protection Surveillance Centre had recorded a total of 1,763 deaths related to Covid-19, of which 113 related to people under the age of 65. Duffy thus concluded that \u2018At the time that Boylan shared the original tweet on 14 July, the number of Covid-19 deaths among people under 65 was 113, not eight\u2019<\/p>\n<p>In response to a request for clarification, however, Boylan said he specifically used the term \u2018from Covid-19,\u2032 not \u2018with Covid-19\u2032. He went on to argue that it was important to distinguish deaths among people with and without underlying health conditions, \u2018in other words people who had died <em>from<\/em> coronavirus.\u2019 He claimed the figure of eight people was a direct quote from a statement made by Independent T.D. Michael McNamara, who said at a sitting of the Special Committee on Covid-19 that only eight of those under the age of sixty-five who died did not have an underlying condition.<\/p>\n<p>Duffy concluded the claim was \u2018misleading because it omits crucial details that may lead to readers forming an incorrect conclusion.\u2019<\/p>\n<p>Boylan\u2019s tweet may indeed have been unsatisfactory, but the original death toll was itself a simplification: a bald statistic that omitted to mention that the vast majority of those who died were afflicted with underlying conditions. Perhaps some of these were patients would have succumbed to a respiratory infection in an \u2018ordinary\u2019 year, considering <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><a style=\"color: #0000ff;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.hse.ie\/eng\/health\/immunisation\/pubinfo\/adult\/fluva\/\">influenza<\/a><\/span> or pneumonia are the cause of up to <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><a style=\"color: #0000ff;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.cso.ie\/en\/releasesandpublications\/ep\/p-vsar\/vitalstatisticsannualreport2015\/deaths2015\/\">a thousand deaths<\/a><\/span> a year in Ireland.<\/p>\n<p>A Covid-19 infection may not have been the primary cause of death; or an infection could have accelerated by a short time that mortality. Any death comes as a shock to those left behind, and all reasonable efforts should be undertaken to preserve life, but it is not uncommon for patients weakened by long-term illness to succumb to respiratory infections, such as Covid-19, rather than the chronic degenerative disease to which the cause of death is ordinarily ascribed. Members of the public unacquainted with medical science may not be aware of this. According to one G.P. consulted in researching this article attributing cause of death is never an exact science.<\/p>\n<p>A more thorough fact-checking exercise might examine the nature of comorbidities or underlying conditions. Conditions <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><a style=\"color: #0000ff;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41586-020-2521-4\">are described in papers<\/a><\/span>, but a loose definition can easily yield to wild claims around the number of those in the Irish population who are at risk of death from the virus.<\/p>\n<p>https:\/\/twitter.com\/DonnellyStephen\/status\/1303632455107260422<\/p>\n<p>Yet a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/d41586-020-02483-2\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">recent article in Nature<\/span><\/a> emphasises that age is by by far the strongest predictor of an infected person\u2019s risk of dying :<\/p>\n<p><em>For every 1,000 people infected with the coronavirus who are under the age of 50, almost none will die. For people in their fifties and early sixties, about five will die \u2014 more men than women. The risk then climbs steeply as the years accrue.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>The suggestion that 1.5 million among an Irish population of less than five million that is <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><a style=\"color: #0000ff;\" href=\"http:\/\/newslab.ie\/ddjucd\/ireland-the-youngest-country-in-ageing-eu\/\">the youngest in the E.U.<\/a><\/span> are susceptible to death from Covid-19 is a wild exaggeration.<\/p>\n<p><em><strong>All 1,777 deaths?<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p>In <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><a style=\"color: #0000ff;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.thejournal.ie\/how-many-people-have-died-from-covid-19-in-ireland-5198763-Sep2020\/\">another recent article Fact Checker<\/a><\/span> claimed: \u201cthe virus was a factor in <strong>all<\/strong> 1,777 deaths.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Yet<a href=\"https:\/\/www.hiqa.ie\/sites\/default\/files\/2020-07\/Analysis-of-excess-all-cause-mortality-in-Ireland-during-the-COVID-19-epidemic.pdf\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"> HIQA<\/span> <\/a>reported in July:<\/p>\n<p><em>Excess mortality was found to be 1,072 (95% CI: 851 to 1,290) between 11 March 2020 and 16 June 2020 inclusive. The officially reported number of COVID-19 deaths for the same period was 1,709. Therefore, the estimated excess mortality is less than the officially reported COVID-19-related mortality by 637 cases.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Similarly in the U.K. Dr Jason Oke of the Centre of Evidence-Based Medicine in Oxford has found that almost one third of Covid-19 deaths in July and August were <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><a style=\"color: #0000ff;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.telegraph.co.uk\/news\/2020\/09\/18\/almost-one-third-covid-deaths-july-august-primarily-caused-conditions\/\">\u2018primarily caused by other conditions<\/a><\/span>\u2019. There is therefore significant doubt over whether the virus was the primary factor in<strong> all<\/strong> 1,777 of these deaths.<\/p>\n<p>Also, the coroner\u2019s office <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><a style=\"color: #0000ff;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.irishtimes.com\/news\/health\/coroners-service-issues-statement-on-coronavirus-related-deaths-1.4200233\">was not conducting post-mortems on suspected cases<\/a><\/span> and testing was pulled from the entire care home sector for three weeks at the height of the pandemic, meaning in many cases doctors were making educated guesses that Covid-19 was the cause of death.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Some people find it hard to believe that when Care Home residents were in the greatest need for testing and diagnostics, testing service was pulled from the entire sector for 3 weeks, to preserve test supplies for the general public. Most died in Homes many\/most were not tested. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/EFi8XsRqER\">pic.twitter.com\/EFi8XsRqER<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Dr. Marcus De Brun (@indepdubnrth) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/indepdubnrth\/status\/1304901809392279552?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">September 12, 2020<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>Then <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><a style=\"color: #0000ff;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.irishtimes.com\/news\/health\/nursing-homes-and-coronavirus-why-the-numbers-don-t-add-up-1.4229722\">CMO Tony Houlihan also acknowledged<\/a><\/span>: \u2018Clinically, the \u201cindex of suspicion\u201d for the disease would be \u201ca good deal higher\u201d than would normally be the case for flu.\u2019<\/p>\n<p><strong><em>RT\u00c9\u2019s Feargal Bowers<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The Irish public service broadcaster RT\u00c9 <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><a style=\"color: #0000ff;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.rte.ie\/news\/2020\/0916\/1165543-rte-truth-matters-campaign\/\">says<\/a><\/span> that \u2018nine out of ten people in Ireland say RT\u00c9 has been their main media source for accessing information on Covid-19.\u2019 The broadcaster recently launched an initiative against fake news entitled: \u2018<span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><a style=\"color: #0000ff;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.rte.ie\/news\/2020\/0916\/1165543-rte-truth-matters-campaign\/\">The truth matters at RT\u00c9 &#8211; here&#8217;s why<\/a>,\u2019 claiming<\/span>:<\/p>\n<p><em>Now that society is grappling with the challenges of a pandemic, and the inescapable anxiety that comes with it, the potential for manipulation of the facts is huge.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>But RT\u00c9 has at times provided an unreliable account of the danger posed by Covid-19 to the Irish public. Throughout the pandemic RT\u00c9\u2019s health correspondent Feargal Bowers has pointed to the exceptional danger posed by Covid-19, which fits within what Nancy Tomes has called the \u201ckiller germ genre of journalism\u201d.<a href=\"#_edn2\" name=\"_ednref2\">[ii]<\/a><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.rte.ie\/news\/coronavirus\/2020\/0829\/1161909-covid-19-lottery\/\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Bower&#8217;s describes a Grim Reaper<\/span> <\/a>that is redolent of the character of Death from <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><a style=\"color: #0000ff;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=f4yXBIigZbg\">Ingmar Bergman&#8217;s Seventh Seal<\/a><\/span>:<\/p>\n<p><em>This virus could visit any of us, at any time, in our homes, or in work.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>It does not make an appointment.\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0 <\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Going outside involves a certain roll of the dice.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Inside you may also encounter this intruder.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>Like any lottery, there are things people can do to improve their chances.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>And hold onto the most valuable prize of all &#8211; your life.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><strong><em>In fact<\/em><\/strong><em>,<\/em> we are dealing with a virus with an infection fatality rate <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><a style=\"color: #0000ff;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/d41586-020-01738-2\">below 1% according to Nature<\/a><\/span> magazine, or \u2018possibly as low as 0.2% or 0.3%,\u2019 according to <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><a style=\"color: #0000ff;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/opinion\/articles\/2020-04-24\/is-coronavirus-worse-than-the-flu-blood-studies-say-yes-by-far\">Lone Simonsen<\/a><\/span>, a professor of population health sciences at Roskilde University in Denmark who has worked at the CDC and National Institutes of Health in the U.S.; others such as Professor <a href=\"https:\/\/www.who.int\/emergencies\/diseases\/strategic-and-technical-advisory-group-for-infectious-hazards\/members\/biographies\/en\/index2.html\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Johan Gisecke<\/span><\/a>, a member of the WHO\u2019s Strategic and Technical Advisory Group for Infectious Hazards (STAG-IH) previously suggested a figure <a href=\"https:\/\/unherd.com\/thepost\/giesecke-stands-firm-swedish-death-rate-will-go-down\/\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">as low as 0.1%<\/span><\/a>. The IFR has varied from region to region, with New York, Madrid, London and Lombardy particularly badly hit, but in Africa, as indicated, the IFR appears to be exceptionally low.<\/p>\n<p>With better treatments \u2013 especially the use of the generic drug <a href=\"https:\/\/www.who.int\/news-room\/q-a-detail\/q-a-dexamethasone-and-covid-19\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Dexamethasone<\/span><\/a> \u2013 and protection of vulnerable groups, chances of survival have improved since the early stages of the pandemic. This seems evident from the relatively low death toll currently witnessed across Europe, including in Ireland, despite rising case numbers. Many of us also harbour <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><a style=\"color: #0000ff;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41577-020-0389-z.pdf\">T-cell immunity<\/a><\/span> from other coronaviruses, as we will see.<\/p>\n<p>Yet Bowers has continued to make <strong><em>factually incorrect<\/em><\/strong> claims in a succession of articles, <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><a style=\"color: #0000ff;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.rte.ie\/news\/2020\/0905\/1163404-covid-ireland-update\/\">including on September 5<sup>th<\/sup><\/a><\/span>, which stated: \u2018The World Health Organization says data to date suggests 80% of Covid-19 infections are mild or asymptomatic, 15% are severe infection, requiring oxygen and 5% are critical, requiring ventilation.\u2019<\/p>\n<p>Ventilators are now used sparingly in the treatment of Covid-19, and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.bbc.com\/news\/business-52409359\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">large orders were cancelled<\/span><\/a> in April.<\/p>\n<p>Remarkably, Bowers seems to have copy and pasted that information from a <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><a style=\"color: #0000ff;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.who.int\/docs\/default-source\/coronaviruse\/situation-reports\/20200306-sitrep-46-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=96b04adf_4\">WHO Situation Report from March 6<sup>th<\/sup><\/a><\/span>, stating \u2018data to date suggest that 80% of infections are mild or asymptomatic, 15% are severe infection, requiring oxygen and 5% are critical infections, requiring ventilation.\u2019<a href=\"#_edn3\" name=\"_ednref3\">[iii]<\/a><\/p>\n<p>The continued use of data from March undermines RT\u00c9\u2019s credibility and should be a source of embarrassment.<\/p>\n<p><strong><em>IFR or CFR?<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>In a widely circulated tweet at the height of the pandemic then Minister for Health and current Minister for Higher Education, Simon Harris confounded the Case Fatality Rate (CFR), which is the percentage of deaths from diagnosed cases, with the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR), which is the percentage who die after contracting the virus. This surely elevated fears around the \u2018deadly\u2019 virus.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Our world is now full of statistics and numbers. I wanted to share an important one with you &#8211; our latest figures show 19,470 people have recovered from <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/hashtag\/COVID%E3%83%BC19?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">#COVID\u30fc19<\/a>. That is 84.3% of those who have contracted this virus.<\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Simon Harris TD (@SimonHarrisTD) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/SimonHarrisTD\/status\/1260614713005793280?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 13, 2020<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>More recently <a href=\"https:\/\/www.thejournal.ie\/cathal-crowqe-covid-ticktok-video-5193963-Sep2020\/\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Fianna F\u00e1il TD Cathal Crowe<\/span><\/a> displayed the same confusion when he called a TikTok video \u2018almost treasonous\u2019 and \u2018only a step or two away from being culpable for manslaughter.\u2019<\/p>\n<p>He added:<\/p>\n<p><em>And at a time when those who contract Covid \u2013 there\u2019s a fatality rate at the moment in this country of 6.2% of those who contract Covid \u2013 I think their actions in trying to draw the Covid virus onto themselves and pass it onto others, I think it\u2019s only a step or two away from being culpable for manslaughter.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Reference to the CFR may give the impression the virus is more lethal than we now know it is. Raising alarm bells may serve a short term end of confining people to their homes, but will ultimately only lead to distrust as reliable scientific information is now easily accessible.<\/p>\n<p>A similar caution should apply to emphasis by the current <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/DonnellyStephen\/status\/1303776610248724482\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Minister for Health Stephen Donnelly<\/span><\/a> on so-called \u2018Long Covid.\u2019 In June the UK\u2019s <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><a style=\"color: #0000ff;\" href=\"https:\/\/covid.joinzoe.com\/post\/covid-long-term\">Covid Symptom Study<\/a><\/span> indicated that \u2018one in ten people may still have symptoms after three weeks, and some may suffer for months.\u2019 But the study fails to distinguish between asymptomatic and symptomatic cases, implying this is a reference to only confirmed symptomatic cases. Anecdotally, one Dublin GP consulted said he had not encountered a single case in his practice.<\/p>\n<p>Long Covid appears to fit into the category of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.medicalnewstoday.com\/articles\/326619\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">a post-viral syndrome, or post-viral fatigue<\/span><\/a> which \u2018refers to a sense of tiredness and weakness that lingers after a person has fought off a viral infection. It can arise even after common infections, such as the flu.\u2019 The prevalence at this stage is unclear.<\/p>\n<p><strong><em>Mortality Projections<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The medical historian Mark Honigsbaum writes: \u2018by alerting us to new sources of infection and framing particular behaviours as \u201crisky,\u201d it is medical science \u2013 and the science of epidemiology in particular \u2013 that is often the source of \u2026 irrational and often prejudicial judgments \u2026 knowledge is constantly giving birth to new fears and anxieties.\u2019<a href=\"#_edn4\" name=\"_ednref4\">[iv]<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Epidemiology cannot be an exact science as it projects into an uncertain future. <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><a style=\"color: #0000ff;\" href=\"https:\/\/cassandravoices.com\/science-environment\/science\/this-is-science-which-should-go-on-trial\/\">Michael Levitt<\/a><\/span> has claimed that epidemiologists see their function, \u2018not as getting things correct, but as preventing an epidemic. So therefore if they say it is 100-times worse than it\u2019s going to be, then it\u2019s ok.\u2019 This approach may explain why a senior Irish health official told the <em>Sunday Business Post<\/em> in March that \u2018<a href=\"https:\/\/www.businesspost.ie\/health\/irish-health-authorities-predict-19m-people-will-fall-ill-with-coronavirus-701e4838\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">1.9 million could be infected and become sick with the new coronavirus<\/span><\/a>.\u2019<\/p>\n<p>But crying wolf with claims that prove wildly inaccurate over the course of a long pandemic cannot easily be repeated. It corrodes trust in scientific authority, which is an important consideration in an era of climate change.<\/p>\n<p>Among the scientists that have risen to prominence over the course of the pandemic is Professor Sam McConkey. On March 11<sup>th<\/sup> <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><a style=\"color: #0000ff;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.irishcentral.com\/news\/politics\/coronavirus-irish-threat-covid19-deaths\">he predicted<\/a><\/span> \u2018there could be between 80,000 and 120,000 deaths in Ireland from coronavirus.\u2019 McConkey has not been adequately held to account for the inaccuracy of this prediction, yet his projections continue to be circulated:<\/p>\n<p>https:\/\/twitter.com\/AodhanORiordain\/status\/1305613309752864771<\/p>\n<p>The main go-to-man among Irish scientists for the Irish media has been Trinity Professor of Immunology Luke O\u2019Neill. On June 22<sup>nd<\/sup> he claimed that Ireland <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><a style=\"color: #0000ff;\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/duzBme\/status\/1302755813400944641\">would have had 28,000 deaths if there hadn\u2019t been a lockdown<\/a><\/span>.<\/p>\n<p>Yet in a long <a href=\"https:\/\/mobile.twitter.com\/higginsdavidw\/status\/1254519476923641867?fbclid=IwAR3nSdxApz-sBTnkCrjR57FZ9Z3Slv6Lrz4LS-UTcZAvUyGjb4lzZ-yxgSE\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Twitter thread data analyst David W. Higgins<\/span><\/a> provided a compelling argument that mortalities peaked prior to the nationwide lockdown at the end of March.<\/p>\n<p>Higgins recalls the country went into lockdown in two stages. \u2018The \u201cfirst measures\u201d were on March 12<sup>th<\/sup> with school closures, social distancing and a ban on large gatherings \u2026. Then on March 28<sup>th<\/sup>, we began the \u2018full lockdown,\u2019 with non-essential workplaces shut and the 2km rule.\u2019<\/p>\n<p>Higgins worked from the assumption that symptoms manifest after five days, and that deaths, on average, occur after twenty. He calculated that \u2018the March 28th lockdown should have led to a peak in deaths taking place over 20 days later, any date after April 17<sup>th<\/sup>,\u2019 which he said is \u2018pretty much what the headline data shows. April 20th saw the largest number of new deaths.\u2019<\/p>\n<p>\u2018However\u2019, he added, \u2018we know that the date of death being announced is several days *after* the death actually took place,\u2019 which, he reckoned, was typically about two days. Therefore, \u2018the peak is more likely around April 15th.\u2019<\/p>\n<p>\u2018The problem is\u2019 he said \u2018that&#8217;s 2 days before the March 28th &#8220;full lockdown&#8221; should have had an effect.\u2019 His conclusion was that \u2018the full lockdown wasn&#8217;t the main cause for peak deaths!\u2019, the implications of this were \u2018profound\u2019 he argued. He argued that \u2018the social distancing alone (between March 12th and 28th) was the main driver of #FlattenTheCurve.\u2019<\/p>\n<p>Based on Higgins\u2019s assessment, the laws introduced on March 12<sup>th<\/sup> provided sufficient space for hospitals to handle a surge in cases that could have led to avoidable deaths from hospitals being overstretched. One may question O\u2019Higgins\u2019s assessment, but at least he has crunched the numbers, unlike O\u2019Neill it would appear, who has offered no proof for his claim.<\/p>\n<p><strong><em>Forming Memories\u2026<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Another scientist to have gained a platform has been, <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><a style=\"color: #0000ff;\" href=\"https:\/\/ryan-lab.org\/tomas-ryan\/\">Dr Tom\u00e1s Ryan<\/a><\/span>, a Trinity colleague of O\u2019Neill\u2019s, who is widely touted as<span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"> <a style=\"color: #0000ff;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.newstalk.com\/news\/experts-present-options-fully-suppress-covid-19-keeping-economy-open-1027992\">an expert<\/a><\/span> authority on this pandemic, despite being a neuroscientist, with no publications listed on <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><a style=\"color: #0000ff;\" href=\"https:\/\/scholar.google.com\/citations?user=_10adFkAAAAJ&amp;hl=en\">Google Scholar<\/a><\/span> related to contagious diseases or public health. Nor does he have a medical background. A recent paper, from June 2020 is entitled: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sciencedirect.com\/science\/article\/abs\/pii\/S0960982220305923\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">\u2018Memory: It\u2019s Not a Lie if You Believe It.\u2019<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Ryan has been among the leading advocates of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rte.ie\/news\/2020\/0804\/1157355-zero-covid-island\/\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">\u2018Zero Covid\u2019 Ireland<\/span><\/a>, dedicated to \u2018<span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><a style=\"color: #0000ff;\" href=\"https:\/\/crushthecurve.ie\/\">Crushing the Curve<\/a><\/span>\u2019, a global initiative of the <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/GrahamNeary\/status\/1306553316151885824\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Wellcome Trust<\/span>\u00a0<\/a>that also <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><a style=\"color: #0000ff;\" href=\"https:\/\/ryan-lab.org\/\">supported Ryan&#8217;s thesis work<\/a><\/span>. Ryan has written a number of articles for both the <em>Sunday Business Post<\/em> and the <em>Irish Times<\/em>, which does not appear to mount a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.irishtimes.com\/opinion\/time-to-embrace-zero-covid-policy-1.4335769\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">paywall for his contributions<\/span><\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Advocating a suppression of the virus in \u2018the paper of record\u2019 <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><a style=\"color: #0000ff;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.irishtimes.com\/opinion\/tom\u00e1s-ryan-is-ireland-s-strategy-to-live-with-or-eliminate-coronavirus-1.4274877\">on June 10<sup>th<\/sup><\/a><\/span>, Ryan claimed that a strategy of \u2018living with the virus,\u2019 would involve:<\/p>\n<p><em>a cycle of successive lockdowns [which] would need to continue four to seven times until we reach a stage of herd immunity, with at least 60 per cent of the population infected. The health cost of this approach would be about 50,000 deaths.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Ryan makes no reference to any study on which he bases this mortality claim. He seems to be referring to the epidemiological assessment of Imperial College\u2019s Niall Ferguson, the <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><a style=\"color: #0000ff;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.telegraph.co.uk\/technology\/2020\/05\/16\/neil-fergusons-imperial-model-could-devastating-software-mistake\/\">methodology<\/a><\/span> of which has come in for serious criticism. In March Ferguson\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2020\/03\/20\/opinion\/sunday\/coronavirus-outcomes.html\">\u2018<span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">best case outcome\u2019 for the U.S. was a death toll of 1.1 million, rising to 2.2 million in a worst case scenario<\/span><\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>On March 17<sup>th<\/sup>, 2020, <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><a style=\"color: #0000ff;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2020\/03\/17\/world\/europe\/coronavirus-imperial-college-johnson.html\">Mark Landler and Stephen Castle<\/a><\/span> in the<em> New York Times<\/em> wrote: \u2018It wasn\u2019t so much the numbers themselves, frightening though they were, as who reported them: Imperial College London.\u2019 Due to the professor\u2019s WHO ties, the authors noted, Imperial was \u2018treated as a sort of gold standard, its mathematical models feeding directly into government policies.\u2019 Yet despite a <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">chaotic response<\/span> from the Federal authorities, the U.S. death toll from Covid-19 remains below two hundred thousand, with daily deaths decreasing <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><a style=\"color: #0000ff;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/interactive\/2020\/us\/coronavirus-us-cases.html?action=click&amp;module=Top%20Stories&amp;pgtype=Homepage\">according to the New York Times<\/a><\/span>.<\/p>\n<p>Contrary to Ryan&#8217;s stark warning, Ireland has registered <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><a style=\"color: #0000ff;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.worldometers.info\/coronavirus\/country\/ireland\/\">just over fifty deaths<\/a>,<\/span> as of September 20th, since the start of July.<\/p>\n<p><strong><em>A More Nuanced Approach<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>One-sided reporting of \u2018facts\u2019 around Covid-19 in Ireland is consistent with a concerted global effort emphasising the unprecedented danger posed by Covid-19. This account is predicated on the assumption that a reliable vaccine is the only way <a href=\"https:\/\/www.theguardian.com\/commentisfree\/2020\/jul\/02\/security-global-pandemic-vaccines-treatments-coronavirus\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">to bring the pandemic under control<\/span><\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>As mentioned, however, the pessimistic projections of Professor Niall Ferguson and others have proved unfounded, and recently the WHO\u2019s Mike Ryan warned there is <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><a style=\"color: #0000ff;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.irishtimes.com\/news\/ireland\/irish-news\/no-guarantee-covid-19-vaccine-will-be-found-says-who-s-mike-ryan-1.4356313\">no guarantee that a vaccine will ever be found<\/a><\/span>.<\/p>\n<p>This leaves us in a position of <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><em><a style=\"color: #0000ff;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov\/pmc\/articles\/PMC7361085\/\">zugzwang<\/a><\/em><\/span>, a term which Emeritus Professor of Public Health at Edinburgh University Raj Bhopal borrows from the game of chess, meaning when the obligation to make a move in one&#8217;s turn leaves one in a serious, often decisive, disadvantage. He concludes:<\/p>\n<p><em>The balance between the damage caused by COVID-19 and that caused by lockdowns needs quantifying. Public debate, including on population immunity, informed by epidemiological data, is now urgent.<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Hearteningly, after a relatively heavy death toll in the spring, having avoided lockdown, Sweden\u2019s case numbers have remained below the European average throughout September \u2013 lower even than its high-performing Scandinavian neighbour <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><a style=\"color: #0000ff;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.thelocal.no\/20200914\/norway-covid-rate-now-higher-than-sweden-for-14-days\">Norway<\/a><\/span>.<\/p>\n<p>This supports an hypothesis that a herd immunity threshold could lie at <a href=\"https:\/\/www.medrxiv.org\/content\/10.1101\/2020.07.23.20160762v2\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">around 10-20%<\/span><\/a>, \u2018considerably lower than the minimum coverage needed to interrupt transmission by random vaccination,\u2019 according to the University of Strathclyde\u2019s Professor Gabriela M. Gomes <em>et al<\/em>. Professor Sunetra Gupta\u2019s group at Oxford University have put the figure as low <a href=\"https:\/\/www.medrxiv.org\/content\/10.1101\/2020.07.15.20154294v1\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">as 10%<\/span><\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>The<a href=\"Covid-19:%20Do%20many%20people%20have%20pre-existing%20immunity?\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"> scale of pre-existing immunity to Covid-19<\/span><\/a> is discussed in a recent article in the British Medical Journal. The authors remind us that the \u2018research offers a powerful reminder that very little in immunology is cut and dried.\u2019 Yet there has been <a href=\"https:\/\/www.rte.ie\/news\/primetime\/2020\/0821\/1160500-watch-recent-covid-19-spikes-of-infection-around-the-world\/\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">little debate<\/span><\/a> on the crucial question of herd or population immunity in the Irish media. This would involve an age-targeted strategy that takes account of the significant health impacts of lockdowns, especially on younger age groups.<\/p>\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"500\" data-dnt=\"true\">\n<p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Yes, my impression is also that most infectious disease epidemiologist favor an age-targeted strategy over general lockdowns. Among other scientists, most are silent, for obvious reasons, while almost all the vocal ones favor general age-wide lockdowns.<\/p>\n<p>&mdash; Martin Kulldorff (@MartinKulldorff) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/MartinKulldorff\/status\/1307349930139430914?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">September 19, 2020<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script><\/p>\n<p>We are now beginning to witness the emergence of a recognisably <a href=\"https:\/\/jacobinmag.com\/2020\/09\/covid-19-pandemic-economy-us-response-inequality\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">left-wing opposition to lockdowns<\/span><\/a> as herd immunity ceases to be a dirty word; while <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><a style=\"color: #0000ff;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.bloomberg.com\/features\/2020-bill-gates-covid-vaccine\/?utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&amp;utm_source=twitter&amp;cmpid=socialflow-twitter-businessweek&amp;utm_medium=social&amp;utm_content=businessweek&amp;fbclid=IwAR2onAt1HWpi5t1vTlBUmy8KDDQaj7_L3-oPqm4C3XzDHAqIxiG11YwVb4I\">Bill Gates has acknowledged<\/a><\/span>: &#8216;the initial vaccine won\u2019t be ideal in terms of its effectiveness against sickness and transmission. It may not have a long duration.&#8217;<\/p>\n<p><strong><em>Lack of ICU Capacity<br \/>\n<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Facts around Covid-19 remain keenly contested among scientists. It may well be that the extreme precaution advocated by the Irish government is indeed justified, but it is incumbent on the Irish media to validate carefully all claims, and permit frank debate to occur. Politicians can be forgiven for erring in not giving an accurate picture at the height of a pandemic, but more honest conversations are necessary as we move forward. It is incumbent on journalists to hold politicians, and scientists, to account.<\/p>\n<p>Unfortunately Ireland\u2019s dysfunctional system of public health creates additional risks that discourages any change in approach, and perhaps explains an apparent faith in <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><a style=\"color: #0000ff;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.irishtimes.com\/news\/politics\/ireland-facing-at-least-another-year-living-with-covid-19-taoiseach-1.4359552?mode=sample&amp;auth-failed=1&amp;pw-origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fnews%2Fpolitics%2Fireland-facing-at-least-another-year-living-with-covid-19-taoiseach-1.4359552#.X2YO_CadACM.twitter\">a reliable vaccine being produced<\/a><\/span>.<\/p>\n<p>At the start of the pandemic Ireland had <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><a style=\"color: #0000ff;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.irishexaminer.com\/news\/arid-30990355.html\">half the number of ICU beds and staffing compared to other E.U. countries<\/a><\/span>. By the start of May, however, according to <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><a style=\"color: #0000ff;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.rte.ie\/news\/2020\/0919\/1166053-fergal-bowers-saturday-read\/\">Feargal Bowers<\/a><\/span> (who presumably can be relied on in this instance) there were 417 units; but by the start of June, that figure was 381; July 252; August 276. At the start of September it was 356. But, as of mid-September the number of ICU beds open and staffed is 278. Under questioning from <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">Michael McNamara<\/span> in the D\u00e1il, Taoiseach Miche\u00e1l Martin said that just <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><a style=\"color: #0000ff;\" href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/MlMcNamaraTD\/status\/1306359964898914307\">twenty-three<\/a><\/span> had been added since the start of the pandemic.<\/p>\n<p>The pandemic has compounded a pre-existing health crisis, with <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><a style=\"color: #0000ff;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.irishtimes.com\/news\/health\/almost-700-000-people-waiting-on-a-hospital-appointment-at-end-of-may-new-figures-show-1.4277937?mode=sample&amp;auth-failed=1&amp;pw-origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fnews%2Fhealth%2Falmost-700-000-people-waiting-on-a-hospital-appointment-at-end-of-may-new-figures-show-1.4277937\">700,000 awaiting medical appointments by the end of May<\/a><\/span>. Now restraints due to the pandemic are <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><a style=\"color: #0000ff;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.irishtimes.com\/news\/ireland\/irish-news\/more-junk-food-for-children-as-covid-disrupts-sleep-patterns-1.4334259\">accelerating<\/a><\/span> the <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><a style=\"color: #0000ff;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.irishexaminer.com\/news\/arid-30956453.html\">highest rate of obesity in the E.U.<\/a><\/span>, with one in four adults falling into this category. But a recent study warns that <a href=\"https:\/\/www.aa.com.tr\/en\/europe\/covid-19-vaccine-may-not-work-as-well-on-obese-people\/1954094\"><span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">any vaccine may not work effectively on someone who is obese<\/span><\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Under-resourcing of the health system might best explain the ultra-cautious and <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\">draconian<\/span> approach adopted by the Irish government, which is increasingly <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><a style=\"color: #0000ff;\" href=\"https:\/\/www.thejournal.ie\/dublin-european-countries-restrictions-5207451-Sep2020\/?utm_source=shortlink\">out of step with most its European partners,<\/a> <\/span>where social life has been permitted to resume <span style=\"color: #0000ff;\"><a style=\"color: #0000ff;\" href=\"https:\/\/cassandravoices.com\/society-culture\/society\/the-new-abnormal\/\">under restrictions<\/a><\/span>.<\/p>\n<p><strong><em>Feature Image: Daniele Idini<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref1\" name=\"_edn1\">[i]<\/a> MacIntyre, <em>Whose Justice: Which Rationality?<\/em>, University of Notre Dame Press, Indiana, 1988, p.357.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref2\" name=\"_edn2\">[ii]<\/a> Mark Honigsbaum, <em>The Pandemic Century: One Hundred Years of Panic, Hysteria and Hubris<\/em>, C Hurst, London, 2020, p.75.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref3\" name=\"_edn3\">[iii]<\/a> Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)Situation Report \u201346, March 6<sup>th<\/sup>, 2020,<br \/>\nhttps:\/\/www.who.int\/docs\/default-source\/coronaviruse\/situation-reports\/20200306-sitrep-46-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=96b04adf_4<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ednref4\" name=\"_edn4\">[iv]<\/a> Mark Honnigsbaum, <em>The Pandemic Century: One Hundred Years of Panic, Hysteria and Hubris<\/em>, C Hurst, London, 2020, p.viii.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>No facts without Judgment Facts alone are wanted in life. Plant nothing else, and root out everything else. You can only form the minds of reasoning animals upon Facts: nothing else will ever be of any service to them. Mr Gradgrind from Charles Dickens\u2019s Hard Times (1854). These are facts the heart can feel; yet [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":9567,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[28],"tags":[120,2304,2321,2322,2446,2447,2507,2917,3076,3095,3143,3165,3529,4202,4352,4492,4527,5710,5713,6563,6640,6641,6646,6731,6839,7420,7573,8007,8019,8285,8286,8409,9458,9494,9691,10046,10082,10228,10231,10306],"class_list":["post-9463","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-science","tag-coronavirusfacts-alliance","tag-david-w-higgins-analysis-of-effect-of-lockdown","tag-death-toll-from-covid-19-in-ireland","tag-deaths-from-or-of-covid-19","tag-dexamethasone","tag-dexamethasone-boosting-chances-of-survival","tag-distinction-between-ifr-and-cfr","tag-elusive-facts","tag-event-201","tag-exaggerating-the-danger-posed-by-covid-19-in-ireland","tag-fact-checker","tag-fake-news-during-the-covid-19-pandemic","tag-funding-of-fact-checker-websites","tag-how-many-lives-did-the-lockdown-in-ireland-save","tag-imperial-colleges-niall-ferguson","tag-irelands-icu-capacity","tag-irish-churnalism","tag-luke-oneill","tag-luke-oneill-how-many-lives-did-the-lockdown-save","tag-niall-boylan","tag-no-facts-without-judgment","tag-no-guarantee-a-vaccine-for-covid-19-will-be-found","tag-noam-chomsky-andrew-marr","tag-number-on-hospital-waiting-lists-in-ireland","tag-one-sided-reporting-of-facts","tag-poynter-institute","tag-quantify-the-mortality-from-covid-19","tag-rte","tag-rtes-feargal-bowers","tag-setting-the-record-straight","tag-setting-the-record-straight-on-covid-19-in-ireland","tag-simon-harris-confounding-ifr-and-cfr","tag-tomas-ryan","tag-tougher-measures-in-ireland-against-covid-19-than-elsewhere","tag-uncontested-facts","tag-what-is-the-herd-immunity-threshold-for-covid-19","tag-who-funds-the-poynter-institute","tag-www-journal-ies-factchecker","tag-www-thejournal-ie","tag-zugzwang-raj-bhopal"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/casswp.eutonom.eu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9463","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/casswp.eutonom.eu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/casswp.eutonom.eu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/casswp.eutonom.eu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/casswp.eutonom.eu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=9463"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/casswp.eutonom.eu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/9463\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/casswp.eutonom.eu\/index.php\/wp-json\/"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/casswp.eutonom.eu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=9463"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/casswp.eutonom.eu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=9463"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/casswp.eutonom.eu\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=9463"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}